Elections Underway in Holland as Polls Suggest Potential Repeat Victory for Geert Wilders

Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.